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8 comments
34 forecasters

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?

community
84.7
result
84.81
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Jan 14, 2021
Closes:Mar 13, 2021
Resolved:Mar 22, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 16, 2021
Forecasting AI Progress
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Artificial Intelligence
2021 Leaderboard

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

December 14, 2024
91.9
December 14, 2026
93.6
78 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
60.8%
(51.6 - 72.1)
47 forecasters

What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?

62.7%
(31.9 - 85.2)
62.7%
(31.9 - 85.2)
94 forecasters
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