Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Num. of first doses given in UK by 15 Feb

The UK government has committed to offer a first COVID-19 vaccine dose to all those in the top 4 priority groups recommended by the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) by 15th February. These groups contain about 15 million people, and account for 88% of COVID-19 fatalities (source, table 2).

As of 11th January, about 2.2 million people across the UK have been vaccinated. But more than 13 million people will need to receive jabs in the next five weeks. In a BBC article on the vaccine rollout, the UK's chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, has described such a timetable as "realistic but not easy".

Some data on the progress of the vaccine rollout is available from the UK government.

How many people in the UK will have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine by 15th February?

This question resolves according to the UK government dashboard.

In particular, the question resolves as the "15-02-2021" value of the "United Kingdom 1st dose total" column in the "data" section of the "People who have received vaccinations, by report date (daily)" section.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.