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7 comments
49 forecasters

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy?

community
88.1
result
86.11
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Jan 14, 2021
Closes:Mar 13, 2023
Resolved:Mar 4, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 15, 2021
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What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

December 14, 2024
91.9
December 14, 2026
93.7
78 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

51.9%
(40.1 - 62.5)
51.9%
(40.1 - 62.5)
54 forecasters

What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?

42.9%
(22.7 - 78.7)
42.9%
(22.7 - 78.7)
99 forecasters
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