Question

[short-fuse] By 2022, will the US Senate confirm Biden's nominees for Treasury Secretary, Secretary of State, Defense Secretary, and Attorney General?

Resolved:Yes

16 comments16

Total Forecasters83

Community Prediction

99%

(96% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

3.5

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jan 16, 2021

Closes:

Jan 20, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 10, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 16, 2021

Future Perfect 2021 Series

Politics

2021 Leaderboard

Senate clears path to confirm first judge of Trump’s second term — but pace lags far behind Biden, first term

New York Post•Jul 11, 2025

Bondi and Hegseth might be messing up — but they’re doing what Trump picked them to do

CNN•Jul 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?

10%

How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?

6.76

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Jan 16, 2021

Closes:

Jan 20, 2021

Resolves:

Mar 10, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 16, 2021

Future Perfect 2021 Series

Politics

2021 Leaderboard

Senate clears path to confirm first judge of Trump’s second term — but pace lags far behind Biden, first term

New York Post•Jul 11, 2025

Bondi and Hegseth might be messing up — but they’re doing what Trump picked them to do

CNN•Jul 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?

10%

How many members of the Trump cabinet will remain in their positions continuously until January 20, 2029?

6.76