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Will the first SpaceX Falcon 9 Heavy launch succeed?

SpaceX is preparing for the first test launch of their new large rocket, the Falcon 9 Heavy. The launch attempt may take place as early as February 6, 2018. The intended payload is a Tesla roadster, being launched on a trajectory towards Mars.

Will the launch succeed?

To be counted a success, the payload must be launched intact on a trajectory that leaves Earth's orbit. The launch must proceed using the rocket currently at the launch pad, and be carried out by the end of 2018.

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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.