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Will Rosenstein still be the top official in charge of the Trump/Russia/Mueller investigation on April 1, 2018?
In the ongoing investigation by Mueller at the FBI regarding Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election, Rod Rosenstein is a key figure. Given Jeff Session's recusal in the case, Rosenstein as acting AG is formally legally the highest official in the investigation, and the only individual currently with direct legal ability to fire (or otherwise instruct) Mueller. Thus any road to removing Mueller goes through Rosenstein.
A recent memo released by Republican House Intelligence committee head Nunes has led to fresh speculation that Rosenstein is being targeted. We'll ask:
Will Rosenstein still be the highest Justice Department official in the Mueller case on April 1?
Resolution is negative if as of April 1, 2018:
Rosenstein is fired or resigns or otherwise not acting AG in the case, or
Jeff Sessions is replaced by an AG who is not recused in the case
and resolution is positive otherwise.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.