Will the Event Horizon Telescope picture of the shadow the Sagittarius A* agree with the prediction of general relativity ?

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) team is currently analyzing data that will allow for the imaging of the Sagittarius A*, the (presumed) supermassive black hole at the centre of our galaxy. See this article from Forbes for an account of the basics.

The team hopes to test various aspects of the region and compare to the properties general relativity predicts for a black hole of about 3.6 million solar masses. We can ask:

Will the inferred size of the Sagittarius A* object match predictions?

resolution is negative if the EHT generates a measurement of the physical size of the Sag A* object that leads to a 3-sigma equivalent or more conflict with the size of a black hole with the best known measurements of the object's mass (incorporating uncertainties in both). Resolution is positive if EHT measures the size and it is consistent (within 3-sigma) with those other measurement and that model, and ambiguous if no good measurement (say one within a factor of two) ends up being made, or if not publication is made prior to start of 2019.

Categories: Physical Sciences – Astrophysics and Cosmology

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions

Continue exploring the site

random question question list

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Metaculus

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word