Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Cosmologists Favor Universe Acceleration


Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, "In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response." This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct "yes" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct "no" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct "yes" or direct "no" are not counted.

The message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.

This question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:

  • The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030.
  • There are an equal number of direct "Yes"s or "No"s in the replies.
  • A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the "Yes"s and "No"s.

The group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories "Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics" and "General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology." For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.

The number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.