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How many of the Falcon Heavy's boosters will successfully land?
According to this article, the upcoming Falcon heavy launch attempt will also be an attempt to recover not just one, not two, but three boosters that will land themselves as previous SpaceX rockets have (eventually) succeeded in doing. We'll ask
How many of the three boosters will successfully land?
The number will be determined by the first attempt at a Falcon Heavy launch that leaves the launchpad. A successful landing counts if the booster is largely intact stays upright after landing. Note that the close date will be retroactively adjusted to 10 minutes before launch, should launch occur before the 2/15 close date (which is likely.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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