composing probable contingencies delivering probable understanding calculating critical forecasts crowdsourcing probable estimations formulating critical futures mapping the future composing quantitative futures generating calibrated predictions modeling definitive predictions delivering accurate wisdom composing predictive estimations mapping critical contingencies mapping predictive insights formulating contingent futures

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

How many of the Falcon Heavy's boosters will successfully land?

According to this article, the upcoming Falcon heavy launch attempt will also be an attempt to recover not just one, not two, but three boosters that will land themselves as previous SpaceX rockets have (eventually) succeeded in doing. We'll ask

How many of the three boosters will successfully land?

The number will be determined by the first attempt at a Falcon Heavy launch that leaves the launchpad. A successful landing counts if the booster is largely intact stays upright after landing. Note that the close date will be retroactively adjusted to 10 minutes before launch, should launch occur before the 2/15 close date (which is likely.)

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.