Question

What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?

Resolved:Above upper bound

1 comment1

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction

595k

(580k - >600k)

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CDF

	<500k	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>600k
community	0.4%	579.9k	594.6k	>600k	38.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<500k	0.4%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	579.9k	—
median	594.6k	—
upper 75%	>600k	—
Upper bound
>600k	38.7%	—

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score

32.7

Community Peer Score

30.0

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Jan 31, 2021

Closes:

Apr 23, 2021

Resolves:

May 14, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 2, 2021

Economy & Business

2021 Leaderboard

Retail Spending Falls For Second Month in a Row

Forbes•Jun 17, 2025

Retail Sales Fell in May But Core Sales Were Unexpectedly Strong

Breitbart•Jun 17, 2025

Retail sales in the US declined 0.9% month-over-month in May, following a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in April and worse than forecast of a 0.7% fall. It is the biggest decrease in four months, as consumers scaled back their purchases ahead of the e...

•Jun 17, 2025

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