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Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?
US recessions matter for investors because the dips in the market caused by recessions can cause years of flat profits. Pulling out right before a recession and jumping in at the bottom of a recession can result in significant gains.
Various indices exist to attempt to predict when a recession will hit the US.
One example is the BCI by iMarketSignals. This index claims to predict a recession 10-20 weeks in advance. It currently shows no signs of a recession coming up.
Another indicator that precedes recessions by 1-1.5 years is the spread on 10 and 2 year Treasury bonds. This indicator also suggests we are at least 2 years out from a recession.
Lastly, the FED publishes an explicit recession probability graph. It suggests we are not at the cusp of a recession, though indicators lag about three months, so this data is at best a confirmation of an ongoing decline.
Question resolves positively if the NBER declares that a recession started at some point between Feb 10, 2018 and Jan 1, 2020 (inclusive).
Resolve date is more than a year and a half after the date in question because the NBER often takes a long time to declare recession boundaries (recent cases involve an entire year to call the start of the 2008 recession.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.