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Will the US enter a recession by Jan 1, 2020?


US recessions matter for investors because the dips in the market caused by recessions can cause years of flat profits. Pulling out right before a recession and jumping in at the bottom of a recession can result in significant gains.

Various indices exist to attempt to predict when a recession will hit the US.

One example is the BCI by iMarketSignals. This index claims to predict a recession 10-20 weeks in advance. It currently shows no signs of a recession coming up.

Another indicator that precedes recessions by 1-1.5 years is the spread on 10 and 2 year Treasury bonds. This indicator also suggests we are at least 2 years out from a recession.

Lastly, the FED publishes an explicit recession probability graph. It suggests we are not at the cusp of a recession, though indicators lag about three months, so this data is at best a confirmation of an ongoing decline.

Question resolves positively if the NBER declares that a recession started at some point between Feb 10, 2018 and Jan 1, 2020 (inclusive).

Resolve date is more than a year and a half after the date in question because the NBER often takes a long time to declare recession boundaries (recent cases involve an entire year to call the start of the 2008 recession.)

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