31 comments
92 forecasters
Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?
15%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 15% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 11, 2021
Closes:Mar 27, 2022
Resolved:Jan 7, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 13, 2021
Will Russell Rickford cease to be a faculty member of Cornell before 2030?
40% chance
12
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.1% chance
129
Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?
50% chance
31