6 comments
12 forecasters
What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 28, 2021
Closes:Jan 29, 2021
Resolved:Apr 15, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 29, 2021
In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
Mar 2032
(01 Aug 2029 - Apr 2036)
3 forecasters
Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?
18.7% chance
12
When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?
Feb 2033
(30 Aug 2029 - Apr 2037)
Feb 2033
(30 Aug 2029 - Apr 2037)
17 forecasters