Question

What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?

Resolved:54.6

6 comments6

Total Forecasters16

Community Prediction

73.7

(66 - 83.7)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	66.02	73.73	83.75
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	66.02	—
median	73.73	—
upper 75%	83.75	—

What was the final result?54.6

Community Baseline Score

-22.9

Community Peer Score

26.5

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Jan 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 29, 2021

Resolves:

Apr 15, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 29, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?

24.2%

When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?

Dec 2032

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Jan 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 29, 2021

Resolves:

Apr 15, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 29, 2021

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

Will the cancer pill AOH1996 enter Phase III clinical trials before January 1, 2027?

24.2%

When will an HSV-1 vaccine be approved by the FDA?

Dec 2032