Question
When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?
Total Forecasters60
Community Prediction
26 Feb 2026
(01 Aug 2025 - 22 Sep 2026)
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CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 01 Aug 2025 | — |
| median | 26 Feb 2026 | — |
| upper 75% | 22 Sep 2026 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >01 Jan 2027 | 16.3% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2022
Authors:
Opened:Feb 22, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2027
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 24, 2022