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BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?


In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding the total U.S. stock market.

Will Bitcoin outperform VTI from 2021-Mar-01 until 2026?

After calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTI)?

(2021-02-21. Clarification: returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation of value.)

  1. We will prefer using BTC price data from whichever crypto exchange is the largest at the end of 2025, by total transaction volume. If this is difficult to determine or ambiguous, the prices of BTC could be averaged among a few major exchanges.
  2. If VTI is re-branded under a different name but continues to exist and be managed in the same portfolio management style, we will still use it as long as historical data is available. If VTI ceases to exist, the question will resolve ambiguously.
  3. All prices are in USD.
  4. Since Bitcoin trades 24/7 but the stock market does not, we will prefer starting BTC's returns from the opening bell at 9:30 a.m. on March 1st 2021 Eastern time, until the closing time of 4:00 p.m. of the last trading day of 2025, in Eastern time (the NYSE's hours). Otherwise the closest available price in time will be used.

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