Question

What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?

Resolved:43.74

7 comments7

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction

38.3

(30.2 - 46.7)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<15	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>95
community	4.8%	30.18	38.34	46.71	1.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<15	4.8%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	30.18	—
median	38.34	—
upper 75%	46.71	—
Upper bound
>95	1.1%	—

What was the final result?43.74

Community Baseline Score

43.8

Community Peer Score

15.9

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Feb 14, 2021

Closes:

Apr 14, 2021

Resolves:

Feb 25, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 16, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

What percentage of AI computational performance will be located in the United States on January 1, 2028?

68.4

How many months ahead of the rest of the world will the US be in the following AI benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

3.21

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2.9×10¹⁸