Question

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?

Resolved:1.102

5 comments5

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction

1.34

(1.06 - 1.58)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	<0.442	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>3.2
community	4.7%	1.064	1.344	1.576	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.442	4.7%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	1.064	—
median	1.344	—
upper 75%	1.576	—
Upper bound
>3.2	0.4%	—

What was the final result?1.102

Community Baseline Score

43.6

Community Peer Score

11.2

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Feb 14, 2021

Closes:

Apr 13, 2021

Resolves:

Feb 23, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 16, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2.9×10¹⁸

Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?

47.2%

When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?

Dec 2034