2 comments
26 forecasters
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 14, 2021
Closes:Apr 14, 2021
Resolved:Feb 14, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 16, 2021
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
Before January 1, 2026, what will be the highest compression factor achieved for the Hutter Prize?
9.04
(9.01 - 9.07)
9.04
(9.01 - 9.07)
38 forecasters
What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?
96.7%
(92.3 - 98.7)
96.7%
(92.3 - 98.7)
11 forecasters