17 comments
35 forecasters
When will the COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?
Current estimate
>22 Dec 2025
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Authors:
Opened:Feb 18, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2025
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 20, 2021
How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?
111k deaths/year
(85.2k - 179k)
111k deaths/year
(85.2k - 179k)
55 forecasters
If at least 200 human cases of H5 are confirmed in the United States before 2026, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
0.854%
(0.396 - 1.44)
0.854%
(0.396 - 1.44)
40 forecasters
What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?
815 per 100,000
(590 - 1025)
815 per 100,000
(590 - 1025)
9 forecasters