7 comments
36 forecasters
What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 13, 2021
Closes:Apr 14, 2021
Resolved:Feb 14, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 15, 2021
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
929k B
(180k - 8.03M)
51 forecasters
When will a language model be developed that, when tested, yields approximately human-level output?
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
05 Jun 2024
(05 May 2023 - 10 Feb 2027)
36 forecasters
Will high-impact research on reducing the sample complexity of Large Language Model pretraining be forthcoming before 2026?
55% chance
33