Question
What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?
Resolved:43.791kTotal Forecasters35
Community Prediction
1.08M
(137k - >1.5M)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 137.4k | — |
| median | 1.084M | — |
| upper 75% | >1.5M | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1.5M | 38.9% | — |
What was the final result?43.791k
Community Peer Score
28.3
Authors:
Opened:Feb 13, 2021
Closes:Apr 14, 2021
Resolves:Feb 14, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 15, 2021
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
28 Feb 2026
What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?
72
What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?
21.9
Authors:
Opened:Feb 13, 2021
Closes:Apr 14, 2021
Resolves:Feb 14, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 15, 2021
When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
28 Feb 2026
What will be the highest average score among a selected subset of VideoGameBench on January 1, 2028?
72
What will be the highest score for the "ARC Prize 2025" competition on it's public leaderboard on August 31, 2025?
21.9