Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

China to officially cease being socialist


Article 1 of the current constitution of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:

The People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.

While the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.

When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?

This question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:

  1. There is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five autonomous regions of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.

    Any future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.

  2. The constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.

The resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.

For the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.

The first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question.


Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.