Profile
Save
Username
Formerly Known As
Member Since
- December 27, 2020
Bio
Website
{{err}}
{{"metaculusSupporterHeading" | translate}}
{{"supporterSinceHeading" | translate}}
- {{pctrl.account.supporter_since | date:'MMMM d, y'}}
{{"changeUsernameHeading" | translate}}
{{"tachyonsCost" | translate:({tachyons: user.username_change_cost})}}
{{"changeUsernameDescription" | translate}}
{{"changeUsernameDescriptionNewUser" | translate}}
Forecaster Stats
Level
15 (Time Lord)
Predictions
1836 predictions on 376 questions (238 resolved)
Comments
165 comments on 92 questions
Rank
89th
Achievements
Tournaments and Projects
- Trade Signal Tournament
- Nuclear Risk Tournament
- Virginia Lightning Round Tournament
- Metaculus Journal
- Real-Time Pandemic Decision Making
- Global Trends 2022
- AI Progress Essay Contest
- China and Global Cooperation
- Ukraine Conflict
- White Hat Cyber
- Humanitarian Conflict & Economic Risk
Causes and Organizations
Author Stats
Questions
Forecasts
672 unique forecasts on authored questions
Top Categories
- Mathematics – Pure Mathematics (14)
- Economy – US – Economic Indicators (6)
- Effective Altruism (6)
- Environment – Climate (4)
- Economy (3)
Popular Questions
- Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? (261 forecasts)
- When will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? (197 forecasts)
- When will China officially cease to be a socialist state? (170 forecasts)
- Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100? (114 forecasts)
- When will P = NP be settled? (101 forecasts)