24 comments
22 forecasters
When will the first use of accurate lie detection in court case occur?
Current estimate
Jan 2056
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Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2099
Scheduled resolution:Dec 31, 2099
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2021
What percentage of predictions about "robotic judges" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?
7.73%
(1.4 - 14.6)
7.73%
(1.4 - 14.6)
22 forecasters
When will someone first be convicted of a murder that occurred outside of Earth's atmosphere?
Jan 2074
(Feb 2050 - 2110)
Jan 2074
(Feb 2050 - 2110)
43 forecasters
Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?
73% chance
69