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SCOTUS Vacancy to arise in 2021

Question

The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States.

Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 70% chance that a vacancy will arise on the Supreme Court in 2021.

Will a vacancy on the Supreme Court of the United States arise in 2021?

For the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.

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