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2021 EU's COVID-19 deaths to exceed US's

Question

As of February 11, 2021, the European Union has suffered ~511k confirmed deaths from COVID-19 Our World in Data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. By comparison, the US suffered a total of ~484k deaths.

Matt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, predicted on December 28th that there’s a 60% chance that the EU will end the year with more confirmed COVID-19 deaths than the United States.

Will the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths in the European Union exceed that for the United States in 2021?

This resolves positively if data from Our World in Data indicates that the cumulative deaths in the European Union exceeds the number of deaths in the United States for the calendar year 2021.

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