Question

Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?

Resolved:Yes

63 comments63

Total Forecasters84

Community Prediction

35%

(28% - 47%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Peer Score

9.7

Community Baseline Score

-3.1

Authors:

citizen

Opened:

Mar 26, 2021

Closes:

Sep 7, 2021

Resolves:

Nov 17, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 28, 2021

Elections

Politics

2021 Leaderboard

The Epstein files and a possible shutdown: Summer's over but the heat is on in Congress

USA Today•Sep 2, 2025

A shutdown fight and Epstein drama await as Congress returns to Washington

NBC•Sep 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?

15%

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?

14%