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Enough vaccine for all U.S. adults by 31 May?

Cross-posted on Metaculus: Pandemics.

On 2 March, President Biden publicly announced that the U.S. is "on track to have enough vaccine supply for every adult in America by the end of May." There are approximately 255 million adults in the U.S.

President Biden's announcement came shortly after the U.S. FDA authorized the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine on 27 February and Merck announced on 2 March that it would help manufacture the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine is the third vaccine to be authorized for emergency use against SARS-CoV-2 in the U.S.

Will sufficient SARS-CoV-2 vaccine supply for all U.S. adults be allocated by 31 May 2021?

This will resolve on the basis of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine allocation data provided by the CDC and HHS.

Specifically, given that in the U.S. the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are currently two-dose regimens and the Johnson & Johnson is currently single-dose, the sum of the following will be taken for resolution:

1: total Pfizer second dose allocations (29,953,950 as of week of 1 March)

2: total Moderna second dose allocations (32,818,500 as of week of 1 March)

3: total Johnson & Johnson allocations (2,833,400 as of week of 1 March)

So as of the week of March 1, there have been enough vaccines allocated for 65,605,850 Americans, which is 25.7% of the U.S. adult population. This questions asks whether enough vaccines will be allocated for at least 100% of U.S. adults for the week of 31 May 2021.

Any other vaccines are authorized for emergency use by the U.S. FDA before 31 May can count toward allocation totals.

If the U.S. federal government says by 31 May that it has enough vaccine doses to fully vaccinate all adult Americans but does not allocate enough doses accordingly (due to anticipated vaccine hesitancy, for instance), then a best attempt will be made to verify the U.S. federal government's claim by summing up the most recent data made available via press releases by vaccine manufacturers and/or credible media reporting.


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