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Will engineers create a material with a melting point higher than 4300K (and hence any other substance) by 2021?
But no material is cooler than tantalum hafnium carbide. To be more precise, no other material currently engineered can stay "cool" (that is, solid) at temperatures approaching 4200 K. For reference, that's about 2/3rds the temperature of the sun's surface!
Can engineers do better, though? Researchers at Brown University say:.
new calculations suggest that an optimal composition of hafnium, nitrogen, and carbon — HfN0.38C0.51 — is a promising candidate to set a new mark.
Will this new material – or some other compound – break (or should we say "melt") the melting point record by 2021?
Result is positive if a paper appears in a trusted, peer reviewed journal confirming the creation of a substance with a higher melting point than 4300 K by 2021. (That's above the record, but below the predicted melting point of HfN0.38C0.51.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.