The number of new deaths due to COVID-19 is one factor that contributes to the burden of a disease. The CDC estimates that seasonal influenza between 10/2019 and 04/2020 caused 24,000 to 62,000 deaths in total. As of 1 March 2021 there are 511,995 cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 reported in the US. The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction made on Mar. 01, 2021 of the number of new incident deaths for the week beginning 2021-02-21 and ending on 2021-02-27 is 14,238. Changes in the disease burden indicate to public health officials whether past interventions have effectively reduced the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and impact of COVID-19.
A plot of the current number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US over time using data from the JHU CSSE group can be found here and the raw data used to generate this plot can be found here.
Data sources and more information:
- The CDC’s COVIDView website
- Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports
- Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age
- Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity
- The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths
- CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time
- The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project
- Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset
- The COVID-19 ForecastHub
What will be the total number of new incident deaths due to COVID-19 in the US for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive)?
We encourage forecasters to comment and compare their forecast to the The COVID-19 Forecast Hub ensemble median prediction of 7,805 incident deaths between 2021-03-21 and 2021-03-27.
This question will resolve as the number of new deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 and ending on 2021-03-27 (inclusive) as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository. This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated by week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The number of deaths for the week beginning on 2021-03-21 will be computed by adding the number of new deaths from the 2021-03-21 up to, and including, 2021-03-27. The report will be accessed no sooner than (2021-04-04).