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7 comments
199 forecasters

Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?

75%chance
75%chance
ResolvedYes
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 75% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
casens
Opened:Apr 22, 2018
Closes:Nov 5, 2018
Resolved:Nov 8, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 23, 2018
Elections
Politics
2018 Leaderboard
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Map Shows Where Democrats Are Overperforming in Special Elections
Newsweek•Sep 10, 2025
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Democrats React as Republican Majority Shrinks After Special Election
Newsweek•Sep 10, 2025
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Dems Need This Much of the Popular Vote to Retake the House Next Year
Townhall•Sep 9, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?

14% chance
21

Which party will hold a plurality in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections?

Democrats
68.8%
Republicans
31.1%
Other
0.1%
443 forecasters

Which party will control the US Congress following the 2026 midterm elections?

Rep Senate / Dem House
66.1%
Rep Senate / Rep House
18.4%
Dem Senate / Dem House
14.5%
1 other
23 forecasters
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