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Will Democrats win control of the US House of Representatives in 2018?
In 2016, Republicans controlled the house of representatives with 241 seats versus democrat's 194. No third party candidates won any seats. Republicans have controlled the house since 2010, under the Obama administration. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during their first term, and current polling on a national generic ballot indicates that Democrats have an 6-8 percentage point lead over Republicans.
If Democrats win 218 seats or more in 2018, they will have secured a majority in the house. Will that happen?
435 seats will be contested on November 6th, except for Louisiana, whose general election occurs on December 8th. The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give control to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2019 and elects a Speaker of the House.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.