Question

When will an open-source AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?

Total Forecasters284

Community Prediction2026-04-16 (2025-02-15 - 2028-03-10)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2099-12-23
community	2025	2026	2028	0.8%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2025	—
median	2026	—
upper 75%	2028	—
Upper bound
>2099-12-23	0.8%	—

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Mar 8, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

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