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When will the world create the first Trillionaire?

In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.

International bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around 11 trillionaires within 2 generations.

Others speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might claim the title.

Despite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is nearing the $100B mark, we're not yet nearing $1T territory.

What do you think? When will we cross the threshold?

For a positive result, an individual must be ranked on Forbes' Billionaires List with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion.

(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.