related questions on Metaculus:
Beginning in 2017, the government of China has detained over 1 million Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly forced into labor, tortured, and raped, and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates condemned these camps.
In Vox's Future Perfect, Sigal Samuels predicted:
The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)
[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.
Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?
This question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used.
As the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps.