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At least 3 UBI pilots in 2021


related questions on Metaculus:

Universal Basic Income is a proposal to give unrestricted cash transfers to everyone in a given population (such as a town, state, or nation). Proponents argue that UBI could end poverty, support people in a technological unemployment crisis, or could reform existing social welfare systems. Critics argue that UBI could be prohibitively expensive, disincentivize people from pursing productive work, or even argue that work is an intrinsic good.

UBI has been studied, in some limited circumstances. The State of Alaska provides a stipend to its citizens (though well under a poverty line income), and many studies have been run on sampled populations, like those run by GiveDirectly.

In Vox's Future Perfect, Sigal Samuel predicts:

At least three new basic income pilots will be launched (75 percent)

[...] I think basic income will continue to gain momentum in 2021, with at least three new pilots launching globally. I’m not expecting to see much action at the national level — with a few exceptions, basic income programs offer money to small groups of a few hundred or few thousand people, not a whole country — but I think we’ll see a good amount of action at the city level. That’s because the global economy won’t recover overnight; the need precipitated by the pandemic will persist well into the year, and the illusion that only lazy people ever need “free money” has been shattered.

Will at least 3 Basic Income pilots be tested in 2021?

This question will resolve positively if at least 3 new Basic Income pilots or programs begin disbursing money to recipients in 2021. Such pilots may be funded or managed by governments or private individuals.

A qualifying program must have at least 100 individuals who recieve an income of greater than 33% of the poverty threshold in their region. The income must be unconditional, ie, ask no requirements of the recipients (besides trivial requirements such as residency and reporting data to the study authors), and have no restrictions on how the cash is spent. The study must last at least 6 months long.

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