Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
When will Kalshi launch 30 markets?
Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live
The company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:
When will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?
The question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a "coming soon" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.
The service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.