Metaculus Help: Spread the word
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Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
Some quite successful companies are not publicly traded, such as Cargill, Albertsons and Koch Industries, see Statista's largest private US companies by revenue for further examples.
However, for many companies, "going public" is a major milestone. Going public allows company founders to "cash out" and diversify their portfolios. It also can allow a company to obtain much greater funding than it might from private sources.
Question: Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
The obvious case in which this will be true is if the company owning and operating this site, metaculus.com is a publicly traded company. Either Metaculus would go public itself or a portion of the Metaculus company would be purchased by a publicly traded company at a price that would place the company's value as at least $300 million.
I included operation by a publicly traded company as an option here to handle a situation in which a publicly traded company is making substantial commitment to this technology. That should at least involve license payments to Metaculus of at least $300 million in some year that at least half of which come from publicly traded companies.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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