computing quantitative futures predicting predictive forecasts modeling quantitative predictions delivering critical understanding calculating precise understanding mapping the future delivering contingent contingencies mapping intelligent contingencies modeling accurate contingencies modeling intelligent forecasts delivering accurate estimations crowdsourcing quantitative predictions modeling critical forecasts generating intelligent understanding


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved?

One of the most important projects of the Michel Temer's presidency of Brazil is approving a Social Security Reform.

The reform is unpopular, and according to Forbes "there have been doubts on whether it will be implemented".

It has to be taken in consideration that, in the context of the current federal intervention, that "Under the Constitution, Brazilian lawmakers are barred from making broad legal changes during a military intervention imposed by decree." (here noted by NYT)

The Temer government possibly plans lift up the intervention for the time need to vote the reform.

So the question is:

Will Temer's Social Security Reform be approved by the end of 2018 or the end of Temer's presidency (whichever comes first)?

Resolution is positive if a bill reforming Brazilian social security in a way substantively similar to the one currently under consideration passes in the Brazilian lower house and upper house of congress by three fifths of vote.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.