23 comments
124 forecasters
By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?
9.5%chance
The community sees this as a toss-up.
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 7, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 8, 2021
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
25% chance
2.1k
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
49% chance
87
Will US Non-Overseas Contingency operations military deaths exceed 3,000 in any calendar year before 2032?
27% chance
58