Question

In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?

Resolved:No

20 comments20

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction

12%

(5% - 18%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

65.8

Community Peer Score

12.0

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Apr 16, 2021

Closes:

Nov 2, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 21, 2025

Spot Scoring Time:

Apr 18, 2021

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Pam Bondi Asked To Investigate 2024 Election Results

Newsweek•Jun 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?

Will a court change the winner of a 2026 election for U.S. House, Senate, or a top statewide office?

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?