Question
Facebook Twitter
  • Copy Link
    •
  • Approval
  • Set Reminder
  • Share private question
  • Unsubscribe from question
  • Invite Coauthors
  • Remove myself
  • View Metaculus Prediction
  • {{qctrl.question.communityIsHidden ? 'Show' : 'Hide'}} Community Prediction
    •

    Your submission is now a Draft.

    Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

    Pending

    This question now needs to be approved by community moderators.

    You have been invited to co-author this question.

    It now needs to be approved by community moderators. Thanks for helping!

    First Super Heavy Flight

    Created by ThirdEyeOpen and
    co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
    on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}

    Question

    SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.

    When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?

    A Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.

    Categories:
    Industry – Space
    Series — SpaceX

    Make a Prediction

    Prediction

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

    Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

    Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.