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War in Donbass 2021


American and European media and political institutions are drawing attention to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from Ukrainian, Russian, and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/military watcher circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent exchanges of artillery fire.

Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?

Resolves positively if there are >250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine.

Source used will be MemoryBook (reprinted on Wikipedia page reprinting its stats), or another credible source should there be a strong consensus that this one has become incredible or obsolete.

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