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# Date GWP Exceeds 1 Quadrillion USD

### Question

The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).

As of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to the World Bank. When will Gross World Product exceed$1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?

This resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. \$$10^{15}$ (in 2010 USD) according to the the World Bank. If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.

For the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.

To pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).

ETA 2021-07-08: In case of human extinction, the question is to resolve ambiguously.

Specifically, let the GWP at year $k$ be $y_k$, and let $t_0$ be the first day of the last year with $y_0\lt 10^{15}$, and let $t_1$ be the first day of the first year with $y_1 \geq 10^{15}$. Then the exact resolution date will be given by

### Prediction

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