Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will GWP exceed 1 quadrillion USD?

The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).

As of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to the World Bank.

When will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?

This resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the the World Bank. If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.

For the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.

To pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).

ETA 2021-07-08: In case of human extinction, the question is to resolve ambiguously.

Specifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by

Categories: Economy, Economy – Economic Transition

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site
random question question list

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.