25 comments
65 forecasters
How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?
Current estimate
3.36 years
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Authors:
Opened:May 4, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2200
Spot Scoring Time:May 6, 2021
When will we have transformative AI?
May 2042
(Apr 2031 - Jan 2069)
May 2042
(Apr 2031 - Jan 2069)
163 forecasters
What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?
166 trillions $
(121 - 404)
166 trillions $
(121 - 404)
52 forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the world’s real average annual GDP growth?
8.7%
(3.57 - 19.4)
8.7%
(3.57 - 19.4)
33 forecasters