M

Your submission is now a Draft.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

You have been invited to co-author this question.

When it is ready, the author will submit it for review by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

Pending

This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators.

We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.

If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment.

You have been invited to co-author this question.

It now needs to be approved by Community Moderators. Thanks for helping!

{{qctrl.question.title}}

{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
{{"myPredictionLabel" | translate}}:  
{{ qctrl.question.resolutionString() }}
{{qctrl.question.predictionCount() | abbrNumber}} predictions
My score: {{qctrl.question.player_log_score | logScorePrecision}}
Created by: PeterWildeford and
co-authors , {{coauthor.username}}
AI Progress Essay Contest AI Demonstrations

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing and this progress has been accelerating, especially with developments like GPT-3. GPT-3 has proven surprisingly capable at a wide variety of question answering tasks, but it currently is not able to make accurate Metaculus forecasts. However, as question answering and AI gets more advanced and AI supercedes humans at more and more tasks, when will AI become a better forecaster on Metaculus?