19 comments
22 forecasters
When will the first babies screened by Orchid Health be born?
Current estimate
24 Apr 2024
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Authors:
Opened:May 7, 2021
Closes:Oct 5, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Dec 30, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:May 9, 2021
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By 2050, Will at least 20% of US births be screened as embryos to detect genetic disorders or disabilities?
60% chance
31
When will we see the first live birth from human in vitro gametogenesis?
May 2032
(18 Oct 2028 - Jun 2038)
May 2032
(18 Oct 2028 - Jun 2038)
46 forecasters
When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?
13 Dec 2028
(07 Dec 2025 - Apr 2036)
13 Dec 2028
(07 Dec 2025 - Apr 2036)
118 forecasters