Nobel Prizes are awarded each Autumn in Peace, Literature, Physics, Chemistry, and Medicine & Physiology, or some of those categories.
Accomplishments relating to global pandemics may be recognized in any appropriate category. Prize citations in Medicine have cited discoveries of human immunodeficiency virus and of Hepatitis C. Peace Prizes, too, have been awarded for health measures such as combating the hunger pandemic.
To determine the contribution to mankind most crucial to an Award, one reads the "Prize Citations". So, the 2020 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine was awarded jointly to Harvey J. Alter, Michael Houghton and Charles M. Rice "for the discovery of Hepatitis C virus."
The Nobel Committee may formally recognize a contribution to humanity years after the work was done; Dr. Luc Montagnier was recognized in 2008 for HIV work from 1983.
When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?
Question shall resolve positive when the Nobel Committee directly mentions COVID19 (by using any of its recognizable names) in a Prize Citation read aloud at a Nobel ceremony and made public in writing in any language (e.g., Swedish, Norwegian, or English).
Special Citations and other out-of-category Awards can satisfy the resolution criteria; invitations to make presentations, accolades in historical retrospectives, and prizes awarded in "Economic Sciences" will not.
Resolution may occur early, if a Prize that satisfies the above criteria has actually been awarded. (Prizes are typically awarded in the calendar year of an announcement, but not always.) However, the Laureate may refuse the prize money, or may miss a scheduled ceremony, without affecting resolution.
An award in 2046 of a Prize denominated as "the 2045 Prize" (or any other time-bending oddity) will resolve the question to the later year.
A decision by the Nobel Committee to withhold a Prize (e.g., for plagiarism) may be considered by admins in determining whether to resolve the question some other way.
">2046" shall be the resolution if the Resolve Date arrives before early resolution has become appropriate.
In the event of uncertainty, admins may look to an authoritative expert.