Question
How far away is the nearest independent origination of life?
Total Forecasters45
Community Prediction
9.1×10¹⁵ km
(220B km - 2.2×10¹⁹ km)
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CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <20k km | 4.0% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 219.9B km | — |
| median | 9.1×10¹⁵ km | — |
| upper 75% | 2.2×10¹⁹ km | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >1×10²⁵ km | 7.8% | — |
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Authors:
Opened:Apr 23, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 25, 2021
Authors:
Opened:Apr 23, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 25, 2021